The base case still clears plan — but the margin is now one stalled deal wide.
Two-thirds of next quarter’s revenue is already committed or recurring, so the floor is solid. The wobble is all in pipeline: the Cobalt licensing renewal (€240K) has sat 9 days and it carries ~€90K of the P50. Slip it past Sep and the “chance of hitting plan” drops from 72% to about 58% — I’ve modelled both. Separately, collection lag crept from 41 to 48 days in May, which is what pulled the cash cone down a notch even though revenue held.
Committed — signed SOWs & contracted retainers 1.18M
Recurring — renewals (churn-modelled) 0.52M
Pipeline — probability-weighted 0.94M
Seasonality — Sep ramp vs summer dip +0.07M
The committed and recurring blocks (€1.70M) are the forecast’s floor — they move only if a client cancels. Everything above that line is pipeline, and pipeline is where the band widens.
A forecast you can’t check is a horoscope. Every projection is scored against what actually happened once the books close.
Same numbers your ERP already has. We just ran them forward — and, more importantly, showed you the spread, so “we’ll probably be fine” becomes a number with a confidence attached.