Cockpit › Metrics › Revenue
Revenue — monthly
Next 90 days · P50
2.71M €
P10–P90
2.43–2.98M
Model fit · R²
0.91
History used
24mo
Actuals, trend & forecast
JulSepNovJanMarMayJulSepNov
Actual
Fitted trend
Forecast (P50)
P10–P90
Plan
Seasonality
How each calendar month runs against the deseasonalised average (100 = on trend). Summer is light; the autumn campaign window carries the year.
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Lightest: Aug · index 80
Peak: Oct · index 122
How it’s built
1
Decompose, then forecast each part.
Committed contracts, recurring retainers (churn-modelled), and probability-weighted pipeline are projected separately — they behave nothing alike.
Committed contracts, recurring retainers (churn-modelled), and probability-weighted pipeline are projected separately — they behave nothing alike.
2
Trend × seasonality.
A regression on 24 months gives the underlying trend; the monthly index above puts the seasonal shape back on top.
A regression on 24 months gives the underlying trend; the monthly index above puts the seasonal shape back on top.
3
Carry the uncertainty, don’t hide it.
The band is the model’s residual error widened by how far out we’re looking. December’s band is wide on purpose.
The band is the model’s residual error widened by how far out we’re looking. December’s band is wide on purpose.
4
Score it next month.
When May’s books closed, May’s old forecast got graded. That error feeds back into the bands.
When May’s books closed, May’s old forecast got graded. That error feeds back into the bands.
Month by month
| Month | Expected (P50) | Where in the band | Plan | vs plan | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul ’26 | 0.82M | 0.74 – 0.91M | 0.88M | −7% | Summer dip; 2 retainers + 1 SOW committed |
| Aug ’26 | 0.79M | 0.68 – 0.90M | 0.86M | −8% | Lightest month; thin pipeline |
| Sep ’26 | 1.10M | 0.94 – 1.27M | 1.11M | −1% | Autumn ramp; Cobalt licensing weighted in |
| Oct ’26 | 1.14M | 0.93 – 1.36M | 1.10M | +4% | Peak season; 3 deals weighted |
| Nov ’26 | 1.06M | 0.83 – 1.30M | 1.02M | +4% | Campaign delivery billed |
| Dec ’26 | 0.81M | 0.58 – 1.05M | 0.84M | −4% | Holiday slowdown; band widest (far horizon) |
“Revenue will be about a million a month” is a feeling. 0.79M, P10–P90 of 0.68 to 0.90, because August is always the quiet one — that’s something you can plan payroll against.