Finance
P&L, plan vs actual, financial health · 2024-01-01 → 2026-03-31
Q1 numbers are real — drinks earned, but not yet
Revenue +9.6% vs plan, gross margin holding at 31%. EBITDA AED 890K vs plan AED 950K — narrowly missed because of the early Aurora overrun. If you contain Aurora at projected -990K, full-year EBITDA still lands AED 2.8M (74% of plan). If Aurora goes to -1.5M, you finish around AED 2.3M (61%). Aurora is the swing variable.
— Jeeves
2026-03 — Snapshot
Plan vs Actual — 2026-03
Annual Performance
| Year | Revenue Plan | Revenue Actual | Δ | GM Plan | GM Actual | EBITDA Plan | EBITDA Actual | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24M | 20M | -14pp | 30% | 22.6% | 1800K | -1540K | Year missed — Ancient Moon cancellation single-handedly turned plan to loss |
| 2025 | 32M | 35M | 10pp | 31% | 31.2% | 2400K | 1590K | Revenue beat plan +10%, but EBITDA missed — hiring + DSO drag |
| 2026 YTD | 42M | 11M | -73pp | 32% | 31% | 3800K | 890K | Q1 beat by 9.6%; Aurora Gala overrun threatens Q2 |
Monthly P&L · 27 months
| Month | Revenue | COGS | GP | GP % | OpEx | EBITDA | DSO | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01 | 980K | 680K | 300K | 30% | 460K | -160K | 38 | Slow Jan — production phase only, festival not ... |
| 2024-02 | 1410K | 1010K | 400K | 28% | 470K | -70K | 35 | |
| 2024-03 | 3450K | 2380K | 1070K | 31% | 480K | 590K | 32 | Lantern Bay 2024 — sell-out three nights, escro... |
| 2024-04 | 2980K | 2050K | 930K | 31% | 510K | 420K | 33 | |
| 2024-05 | 1820K | 1290K | 530K | 29% | 510K | 20K | 36 | |
| 2024-06 | 1640K | 1170K | 470K | 28% | 510K | -40K | 38 | |
| 2024-07 | 980K | 720K | 260K | 26% | 540K | -280K | 41 | Summer dip; pre-production for Ancient Moon ram... |
| 2024-08 | 720K | 580K | 140K | 19% | 540K | -400K | 44 | |
| 2024-09 | 740K | 1940K | -1200K | -163% | 540K | -1740K | 47 | Ancient Moon Festival 2024 cancelled day-of — f... |
| 2024-10 | 1860K | 1280K | 580K | 31% | 540K | 40K | 44 | Royal Reception 100%-upfront cleared in cash; L... |
| 2024-11 | 1840K | 1290K | 550K | 29% | 540K | 10K | 42 | |
| 2024-12 | 2410K | 1740K | 670K | 27% | 600K | 70K | 39 | Solstice Souk close + EMAAR Beachfront final mi... |
| 2025-01 | 2240K | 1530K | 710K | 31% | 620K | 90K | 38 | |
| 2025-02 | 2680K | 1830K | 850K | 31% | 620K | 230K | 39 | |
| 2025-03 | 5180K | 3370K | 1810K | 34% | 640K | 1170K | 41 | Lantern Bay 2025 — record month, AED 4.7M festi... |
| 2025-04 | 2840K | 1990K | 850K | 29% | 760K | 90K | 44 | Hiring spree: +3 FTE start. Payroll jump |
| 2025-05 | 2110K | 1480K | 630K | 29% | 800K | -170K | 49 | |
| 2025-06 | 2260K | 1620K | 640K | 28% | 800K | -160K | 56 | |
| 2025-07 | 1180K | 850K | 330K | 27% | 820K | -490K | 62 | Summer dip + scaled team = OpEx outpaces revenu... |
| 2025-08 | 1340K | 970K | 370K | 27% | 820K | -450K | 71 | DSO at 71 days — first formal CFO red flag. |
| 2025-09 | 5510K | 3680K | 1830K | 33% | 820K | 1010K | 78 | Ancient Moon 2025 (Recovery Edition) + DAMAC Sk... |
| 2025-10 | 2640K | 1810K | 830K | 31% | 820K | 10K | 71 | Big collection month — Ancient Moon receivables... |
| 2025-11 | 2880K | 2040K | 840K | 29% | 820K | 20K | 67 | |
| 2025-12 | 4480K | 3160K | 1320K | 29% | 880K | 440K | 64 | Solstice Souk 2025 + MAF Holiday + bonuses paid |
| 2026-01 | 2960K | 2010K | 950K | 32% | 880K | 70K | 60 | Royal Reception 100% upfront + Family K. deposi... |
| 2026-02 | 2530K | 1750K | 780K | 30% | 880K | -100K | 58 | |
| 2026-03 | 6020K | 4180K | 1840K | 30% | 920K | 920K | 51 | Lantern Bay 2026 — biggest event month ever (AE... |
| 27-month total | 79530K | 54440K | 25090K | 31% | 21470K | 3620K | ||
Operational KPIs
Jeeves · Finance Commentary
Q1 numbers are real — drinks earned, but not yet info
Revenue +9.6% vs plan, gross margin holding at 31%. EBITDA AED 890K vs plan AED 950K — narrowly missed because of the early Aurora overrun. If you contain Aurora at projected -990K, full-year EBITDA still lands AED 2.8M (74% of plan). If Aurora goes to -1.5M, you finish around AED 2.3M (61%). Aurora is the swing variable.
Festivals are the unfair advantage — invest accordingly info
Festivals 2025 actual AED 11.78M vs plan AED 8.5M (+39%). Margin 35–40% on Lantern Bay, even after Ancient Moon's structural loss. This unit is your most defensible IP and your highest-margin revenue. Two thoughts: (a) consider a third festival IP for autumn 2026, (b) hire a deputy for Mathilde — single-key-person risk.
OpEx ratio creeping — watch, don't cut yet info
OpEx as % of revenue: 2024 30%, 2025 27%, 2026 YTD 23%. Trend is right. But absolute OpEx is up 51% over the period (AED 6.2M → 9.4M annualised) on the back of the Q2 2025 hiring. That is justified by the festival scaling. If festival revenue softens by 15%+, you need a contingency for trimming AED 80–100K/month.