Forecast
12-week cash forward · runway under each scenario · counterfactuals you can toggle
Base: 2026-03-28 · 12-week horizon
J
What-if, in numbers
Below is your forward cash position week-by-week through 22 June 2026, starting from AED 9.1M unrestricted. Toggle the chips — every scenario adjusts the bars, the runway days, and the delta tile in real time.
— Jeeves
Projected end-of-horizon cash
10.5M
base case · no toggles applied
Runway from today
98d
at full burn (OpEx + in-flight COGS) · target ≥ 90d
Lowest week in horizon
8.4M
week of Apr 13 · payroll + Aurora burn
Scenario toggles
Cash positive
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Aldira settles
+800K
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Aurora signs change order
+1.1M
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Umbrella settles AED 108K
+108K
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Lloyds settles 50% remainder
+540K
Cash negative
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ADNOC delays Apr 29 payment
−1.82M
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Aurora loss crystallises
−990K
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Lloyds civil suit (legal cost)
−200K
Strategic
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Approve Q2 creative hire
−23K/mo · 3mo
festival
Greenlight 3rd festival IP for autumn
−800K seed
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Pause Installations unit (3 months)
+500K saved
Weekly closing cash · 12 weeks
Bar colour: > AED 7M AED 4–7M < AED 4M (red zone)
Scheduled cash events · the 12-week base case
| Date | Event | Source | Impact | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Payroll run · April | Bayzat | −480K | WPS via Mashreq · 18 FTE |
| 2026-04-15 | Lantern Bay vendor settlement | Ticketstream | ±0 net | Escrow 5.64M out · matched by booked vendor liability · operating cash unaffected |
| 2026-04-24 | Family K. milestone in | Zoho | +960K | 40% on event-day milestone |
| 2026-04-29 | ADNOC Innovation 2026 payment | Bank | +1.82M | Net 90 — pays exactly day 90 |
| 2026-05-15 | Festival surplus to operating | Ticketstream | +1.45M | Lantern Bay GP after vendor settlement |
| 2026-05-01 | Payroll run · May | Bayzat | −480K | WPS via Mashreq |
| 2026-06-01 | Payroll run · June | Bayzat | −480K | WPS via Mashreq |
| 2026-06-15 | VAT return Q1 | Zoho | −420K | 5% net VAT · Federal Tax Authority |
What each scenario assumes
| Scenario | Assumes | Source / evidence | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldira settles | Demand letter sent today · settlement within 21 days | Counsel: high recovery probability against UAE assets | +AED 800K |
| Aurora signs CO | Vision Realm signs USD 300K change order before Apr 11 | Currently unsigned · scope already doubled in Asana | +AED 1.1M |
| Aurora loss crystallises | CO not signed · margin loss booked | Cost-to-date 85% of budget at 60% timeline | −AED 990K |
| Umbrella settles | Founder-MD escalation works · AED 108K paid | Symbolic but unlocks Phase 2 (AED 620K) backlog | +AED 108K |
| ADNOC delays | Net 90 stretches by 14 days | ADNOC's own AP backlog · happened twice in 2025 | −AED 1.82M (timing) |
| Lloyds settles | Carrier accepts mediation · 50% of remainder paid | Currently declined · counsel says low probability | +AED 540K |
| Lloyds civil suit | Counsel instructed · legal costs over 12 weeks | Quoted AED 180–240K · NPV upside +AED 525K in 9–14mo | −AED 200K (12-wk) |
| Q2 creative hire | Approve Senior Creative role · April start | Salary AED 23K/mo · benefits + recruiter | −AED 69K (3mo) |
| 3rd festival IP | Seed autumn IP · pre-production cost · revenue out of horizon | Ancient Moon margin demonstrates 35–40% upside | −AED 800K (seed) |
| Pause Installations | Reassign Sheleesh + 1 producer; freeze pipeline 3mo | Unit −36% on plan in 2025; recovers tight cost | +AED 500K saved |
Jeeves
Toggle every cash-positive scenario at once and you finish the horizon at AED 13M. Toggle every cash-negative scenario at once and you finish at AED 7.4M — still above red, but with no buffer for surprises. The point of this page is not to predict the future; it is to make every possible future legible before it happens.